CovidSeniorV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000118

Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

Identifieur interne : 000118 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000117; suivant : 000119

Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

Auteurs : Antonio Scala [Italie, Russie] ; Andrea Flori [Italie] ; Alessandro Spelta [Italie] ; Emanuele Brugnoli [Italie] ; Matteo Cinelli [Italie] ; Walter Quattrociocchi [Italie] ; Fabio Pammolli [Italie]

Source :

Scientific reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32792591

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Comportement social (MeSH), Enfant (MeSH), Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH), Facteurs temps (MeSH), Facteurs âges (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (virologie), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Italie (épidémiologie), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Modèles statistiques (MeSH), Nourrisson (MeSH), Nouveau-né (MeSH), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (virologie), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Quarantaine (méthodes), Relations interpersonnelles (MeSH), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Voyage (MeSH).
MESH :
- méthodes : Quarantaine.
- prévention et contrôle : Infections à coronavirus, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale.
- virologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Italie, Pneumopathie virale.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Betacoronavirus, Comportement social, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs temps, Facteurs âges, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles statistiques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Relations interpersonnelles, Sujet âgé, Voyage.
Wicri :
- geographic : Italie.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Age Factors (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Coronavirus Infections (virology), Humans (MeSH), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Interpersonal Relations (MeSH), Italy (epidemiology), Middle Aged (MeSH), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Pandemics (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Pneumonia, Viral (virology), Quarantine (methods), Social Behavior (MeSH), Time Factors (MeSH), Travel (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Italy.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- methods : Quarantine.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- virology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Betacoronavirus, Child, Child, Preschool, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Interpersonal Relations, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Social Behavior, Time Factors, Travel, Young Adult.

Abstract

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-70631-9
PubMed: 32792591
PubMed Central: PMC7426873

Affiliations:

Italie, Russie
District fédéral central, Latium, Lombardie
Milan, Moscou, Rome

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

to stream Main, to step Corpus: 000661
to stream Main, to step Curation: 000661

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.</div>
</front>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Scala</LastName>
<ForeName>Antonio</ForeName>
<Initials>A</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-3414-2686</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Applico Lab, CNR-ISC, Rome, Italy. antonio.scala@cnr.it.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Big Data in Health Society, Rome, Italy. antonio.scala@cnr.it.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, Leninsky Prospekt, Moscow, Russia. antonio.scala@cnr.it.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<ForeName>Andrea</ForeName>
<Initials>A</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-9861-3598</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Impact, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico Di Milano, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Spelta</LastName>
<ForeName>Alessandro</ForeName>
<Initials>A</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Univ. Di Pavia, Pavia, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Brugnoli</LastName>
<ForeName>Emanuele</ForeName>
<Initials>E</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-5342-3184</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Applico Lab, CNR-ISC, Rome, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cinelli</LastName>
<ForeName>Matteo</ForeName>
<Initials>M</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-3899-4592</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Applico Lab, CNR-ISC, Rome, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Quattrociocchi</LastName>
<ForeName>Walter</ForeName>
<Initials>W</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Applico Lab, CNR-ISC, Rome, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Univ. Di Venezia 'Ca Foscari, Venezia, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pammolli</LastName>
<ForeName>Fabio</ForeName>
<Initials>F</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Impact, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico Di Milano, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Analysis Decisions and Society, Human Technopole and Politecnico Di Milano, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<Language>eng</Language>
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<PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType>
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<ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>13</Day>
</ArticleDate>
</Article>
<MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country>
<MedlineTA>Sci Rep</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>101563288</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>2045-2322</ISSNLinking>
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<SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName>
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</MeshHeading>
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</MeshHeading>
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</MeshHeading>
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</MeshHeading>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013997" MajorTopicYN="N">Time Factors</DescriptorName>
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	Serveur d'exploration sur la COVID chez les séniors
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Serveur d'exploration sur la COVID chez les séniors

Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

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